Replies to post #147890 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[Handlamera]

Valueinvestor

Please read what others post before you criticize!
RD have given you all sorts of different ways of valuation.

What is your valuation?

[RealDutch]

So after the IPO, you think it would be trading around those numbers you mentioned above?

I think... fair value is $1.79 per SIAF share TODAY. If the trade division succeeds, we can make it $2.50. If they get the $100M loan, the value goes up again. If we get substantially more ODRAS, the value goes up. If we get the cooperatives, it will be big. And I will have to consult with Benjamin Graham. Same applies to AF4/5 if they ever get it up and running.

In general, I think the dividend shares will be worth $10 (per SIAF share now) with an IPO in Hong Kong. Best guess, for now. That does not mean I'm confident about an IPO because I'm not. Without it, who knows, perhaps we can sell it for $5.

[ks1977]

I think your quarrel with RD is based on that you haven't followed what he has written in the past; The appraisal firm used a PE of 10-12 and ended up with the value RD is referring to.

The interesting argument here would be what PE TRW deserves upon listing on HKSE (or whereever it ends up), i.e whether the PE of 10-12 is fair or not (although it should be conservative).

Another interesting question is how much TRW will grow until listing.

For his statement to add TRWs profits since the appraisal value from 2016 this is wrong if TRW is unable to use those profits to generate more profits, they are right if they have been used to generate more profits of the same PE (10-12 in this case), and they are conservative if they are able to ramp up faster with these profits than what they have proven in the past. However, I believe this uncertainty drowns in other uncertainties (like the issues they have with AF4)