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10/06/18 10:28 AM
OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Oct. 5, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 7434 and is trading up about 23% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 7383 following the high established Wed. Oct. 3, 2018. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains somewhat positive. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2020. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 6042 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2020 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2021 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2020. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 9270. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 5243.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 185% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 which we have already exceeded and are currently trading above this level warning some strength has resurfaced in this market. This level can now offer technical support during any attempt to fall back in this market. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 7528 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6922. This provides a 8.04% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 9060 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5994. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 33%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 7434, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 1.24% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come December in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 7373 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 7527 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 7868 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.
The overall tone of this market is neutral at this time as it is balanced on all levels daily through yearly..
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 1st at 7690, which was up 67 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 7690 to 7295. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of October 1st reaching 7690 has exceeded the previous high of 7527 made back during the week of July 2nd. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 15 weeks overall.
Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 15 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 6340, which formed during the week of June 18th, and only a break of 7114 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 7690, which was created during the week of October 1st, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5994 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 31 months. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6443 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 7527, which was created during July, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
