Replies to post #11404 on CryoPort Inc (CYRX)

[hyperopia]

You’re right. My first investment in CYRX was last June, and I really don’t know much about the history of Cryoport. I did basic DD to see if they owned property on a toxic waste site, and any pending litigation, and that sort of thing. I’m well aware that long-time investors have endured multiple reverse stock splits, (resulting in a very high cost basis) and a capital raise last April that nearly cut the shares in half. In the short time I’ve listened to the quarterly conference calls, I’ve become more aware of management’s over promising and under delivering, and do understand what you’re saying. I’ve even posted several times Shelton’s direct quotes regarding the signing of those 3 BP contracts for the outsourcing of cold-chain handling which are no longer even mentioned or asked about by the analysts. None of this BP outsourcing revenue that Shelton said would fully ramp by the end of this year has materialized.

This is why I’m second guessing my investment thesis. I thought I understood where Big Pharma was heading with the increasing complexity and difficulty in handling their cold-chain biologics and complying with the The Drug Supply Chain Security Act, and Cryoport was in a very favorable position to benefit. I’m not sure why they haven’t capitalized on the opportunity. I have to believe that if it was still in the works, this management team would certainly talk it up, right? Perhaps Cryoport is instead working the software angle and looking to integrate their software with World Courier and others, and leave the logistics handling to them?

The regenerative medicine/ gene therapy industry is still in its infancy and will be a huge driver of growth for Cryoport, but it’s like a huge pipeline that is still years away from meaningful revenues. I think the commercial ramp of Kymriah and Yescarta will provide that solid coq growth you are hoping for. Analysts, on average, estimate Yescarta sales will be $2.3 billion in 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/gilead-faces-doubts-on-wall-street-a-year-after-12-billion-deal

I think the fast, easy money has already been made this year in CYRX and BLFS, so I’ve mostly moved on, but still hold some free shares. I probably wouldn’t add again unless they fall back to the single digits or game-changing announcements are made.