Replies to post #32040 on The New CS Board

[cue-master]

interesting, we'll see.

[ahimsak]

I used cycles to trade before computers, back in the 1980's. It worked a lot of the time, and did not work at all some of the time. Will try and find my long term cycle work to see what it predicts for the next couple years.

Too much complacency, and the tariffs will not alone hurt the economy, but the uncertainty they engender will.

Housing starting to have problems, semi's taking a big hit, a big drop into mid oct makes the most sense, with lots of ups and downs between now and then.

Added some shorts in qqq this morning, so far so good. Actually still a loss in my sds position, but not by much.

[ahimsak]

I used cycles to trade before computers, back in the 1980's. It worked a lot of the time, and did not work at all some of the time. Will try and find my long term cycle work to see what it predicts for the next couple years.

Too much complacency, and the tariffs will not alone hurt the economy, but the uncertainty they engender will.

Housing starting to have problems, semi's taking a big hit, a big drop into mid oct makes the most sense, with lots of ups and downs between now and then.

Added some shorts in qqq this morning, so far so good. Actually still a loss in my sds position, but not by much.

[Oddlot]

[Oddlot]

Expectations for SPX short-term

Monday is day50 from beginning of this, the second of three 72day cycles. The 36day low occurred on time (-2 days) and the next 18day low is scheduled for day 54 (-2?), or Friday.

The superposition of the 36 and 18 day cycles upon the 72day gave a possible high very near the actual high, and the next "possible" date is approx day 65. This should be 18days from the prior high.

Then we go down to the 72day low, at which all of the lows are nested.

I suspect that the pattern from from the low later this week will appear as a consolidation pattern of some type, from which we break down. Leg counts, etc, will come into play at that time. I think there is a reasonable chance of a 2790 target, which if it were realized, would confirm the high on the 43week (and of necessity the 3.3yr) and confirm that the next major event would be the 3.3yr low in mid 2019.

Oddlot

[Oddlot]

Superpositioning of cycles may be key at this point. Please review prior post.

The cycle set of 72/36/18/9 etc presumably had nested lows on last Thursday. With the slope of the ma200 or ma216 depending on preference being flat to slightly upward, all of the cycles 216 shorter can be assumed to have reset their count to zero at that time. The first point where one cycle is peaking while the next shorter one is bottoming is at day9 with a 9day low vs 18day high, which is Wednesday next week. The combination should peak nominally at day 4.5 and again at day 13.5, with low at day 9. The longer term cycles are assumed to be slowly accelerating, leading to a higher point at day 13.5 than on day 4.5 (which was yesterday).

I expect the market to be sloppy until nominally Wednesday and then rise towards the high nominally day13.5 (the following Tues/Wed). Afterwards. I believe the market to be vulnerable and a major trendline break if occurring, would signal the decline towards the 3.3yr low in mid 2019.

The major high in Jan2018 may be followed by a major high nominally 43weeks later (November), and a major bear market beginning thereafter. It is a risk...