Replies to post #79132 on Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[raja48185]

I'm curious, what proposed price do you think they'd get with an offering today?

The combination of low pps and no immediate news that is worthy enough to move the pps is what makes any offering detrimental.

at this low pps :

1) You offer less shares, you end up with only a few million dollars - not enough to sustain for more than 2 Qtrs. Market wont be impressed by the size of cash raised. Statement like ' we are excited and looking forward to combating disease and helping cancer patients' are easily ignored by the market.

2)You offer a huge amount of shares and raise a decent amount, the marker is scared now, as it focuses not on the money raised, but on the shares issued and the price at which it was issued.

[jckrdu]

Hey CD - If no deals come and ADXS has to dilute, IMO worst case would be an offering in the $1.00 - $1.25 range. Of course any positive news could push the pps higher before an offering is needed, so $1-$1.25 is my worst case dilution scenario.

Neoantigen companies seem to be able to raise cash at a decent valuation (see NTGN), so if ADXS streamlines further by winding-down AXAL/Cervical (assuming no deal can be closed), one would think KB shouldn't have a problem getting some investors interested in ADXS in light of the success in the capital markets NTGN just had.

As some others have recently posted, the thing I will be watching out for is the inclusion of warrants in any capital raise that may be done. In the past, I've seen "investors" that participate in an offering immediately dump their shares and just keep the warrants, thereby driving the pps temporarily lower than the offering price.

IMO, while these short term risks do exist, Affirmed's recent deal with only Phase 1 data bodes well for the future. IMO, ADXS is at the forefront with NEO and HOT, and at the end of the day that will be the story.