Replies to post #144226 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[ValueInvestor01]

Momentum isn't perfectly understood

Because there is not much logic behind it. It's pure gut feelings that it will keep doing what it's been doing. You might as well just invest on low cost index fund.

Momentum investing is one of the causes of the bubbles. And I don't want to be a part of it.


And what's your respond on my statement:

You don't know where to sell and you don't know where to buy. There is no starting or ending point here, everything is based on hopes that the stock that has been doing good or bad will keep doing so.

Many people pursue momentum strategies without knowing that there could be 80% drawdowns and multiyear underperformances which makes them give up on the strategy.

Where do you get that number from?


If you believe too much on "momentum investing" then why did you invest in SIAF? It's been doing poorly these past couple years surely it will keep doing so according to momentum investing beliefs.


I've read Dhando Investor by Mohnish Prabai, Quantitative Value by Tobias Carlise. Most of them are just repetitive. If you get the idea, you don't need to read all of it.

Value Investing is just about using your common sense. And it is not rational to invest based on momentum.

[surfer44]

Peter Lynch might be one of the most versatile of the long only investors. 6 categories of stocks he invested in. No shorting, no options.

[ValueInvestor01]

If you are just going to buy stock based on idea that it's been going up lately and everyone is buying it, one day, you will find yourself selling when everybody is selling.

Like I said before, the only way to have an exceptional return here is by being on the opposite side of the crowd, and be right at the same time. If you follow the herd, don't expect to get exceptional returns. You would only produce average results. Because investing is zero-sum game, while someone is making money, someone out there is losing. And what makes you think that being just like everybody else (momentum investing) put you on the right side of the coin?