Replies to post #20495 on CHARTS_CCI_SYSTEM

[northam43]

Easycome92 - Thank you for your kind comments.

Right now I am expecting the Weekly to confirm an extended up phase at the close of this month, the W-E-2 projection has the SPX possibly going as high as 3200 by the middle of November, therefore if the W-E-2 is confirmed I will be expecting SPX 3000 for the top of the Weekly phase.

As for it being the SPX Bull cycle top, that will depend a lot on what the SPX monthly does. I am expecting a Monthly down phase to start by November. Right now 3 of the 4 Monthly down phases are overdue. The 4th one which is the M-S-1 is due 11/5/18.

Right now the M-S-1 projected low range is 2818.26 to 2531.72, for a M-S-1 to get confirmed the SPX has to be below the SPX Monthly UTL at the open of the month and remain below the UTL until the close of the month to get confirmed. Currently the Monthly UTL is at 2741.10, that is a 109.03 point decline from Friday's close. So right now with the Monthly UTL at 2741.10, that is within the current P1 projected low range of 2818.26 to 2531.72. As the Monthly up trend continues each month the Monthly UTL price will increase a few points, so by 11/1/18 the Monthly UTL could be at around 2800, so if we dropped from 3000 to lets say 2775 by the end of October and the MACD (3,8,1) (which is the Bull/Bear long term signal) remains above the zero line, and then on 11/1/18 the SPX Monthly opens below the Monthly UTL and then at the end of November closes below the UTL, then a M-S-1 would then be confirmed and the monthly P2 (up phases) would then be reset. Then in December if the SPX Monthly hits the UTL which would confirm a new P2, which would then continue the Bull market for another 1 to 41 months depending on the level of P2 confirmed.

Bottom line: 3000 could very well be the top of this Bull market, but a lot will depend on the timing & depth of the SPX monthly P1 (down phase). A short Monthly down phase (M-S-1) could continue the Bull Market. I have in the past refereed to -1 (short down phases) phases as possible P2 continuation phases, meaning we get a brief correction and then the uptrend continues.

Sorry for the long drawn out reply. Just want to explain my line of thinking. Any questions feel free to ask.