Replies to post #988 on Mongolian Mining Corp. (MOGLF)

[Ponch73]

Of course...you need to throw out last years interim EPS due to the restructuring. But still......EPS is higher than current share price.

I don't think so.

When MMC says 0.29 cents, the company literally means 29/100 of a cent.

MMC just reported $29.8M ($29,898,000) in profit for the first half of 2018.

MMC has 10.292B (10,291,767,865) shares outstanding.

$29.8M divided by 10.292B is $0.0029. Or, said another way, 0.29 cents.

Stock price in USD is $0.025, which is 8.6 times more than what they just reported in first half earnings.

In any case, I don't think comparing stock price (equity value) to earnings is the right way to look at things because it ignores the suffocating debt burden and the onerous capital expenditures of the company. We should really be comparing the enterprise value (equity value plus debt value) to unlevered free cash flow. That comparison still looks horrible.

MMC just reported $65.3M in unlevered operating cash flow for the first half of 2018. Capital expenditures were $(34.6)M. That makes unlevered free cash flow for the first half of 2018 $30.8M. Let's double this number to get a rough full-year number (one could argue that the second half will be higher, but we should know by now that MMC always misses optimistic projections -- and, right on cue, MMC tells us in its interim results presentation that floods from heavy rains limited use of the border access road in July and August 2018). So, $61.6M in full year unlevered free cash flow is a decent guess.

MMC's equity value in USD is 0.148 HKD / 7.85 x 10.292B which is $194M.
MMC's net debt is $455M
MMC's perpetual equity is $76M

Total enterprise value is $194M + $455M + $76M = $725M

$725M divided by $61.6M = 11.8

In the current de-risking landscape, 11.8x unlevered free cash flow for a super-risky coal producer run for the benefit of its oligarch owner in an ineptly-run, landlocked, third world country does not look cheap by any stretch.

On the bright side, at least we can finally do this f@cking calculation. It's only taken MMC a year to actually accrue a modicum of cash on its balance sheet.