Replies to post #20661 on Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc (HMNY)

[VortMax]

Burn was 22m monthly may june july. Should be 15m aug. Down to 0 burn early 2019.

The 93m cash raise on the market started post split. That cash projects to hold them over til profitability.

Heavy users cancelling mp now.

Sub of movies is clearly in demand. Upward from here.

Even if they only get to say 15m subs interested in 3 per month that is a lot. They they can go overseas and make it 30m.

Big profits per user at 4 per month revenue on ads, data, movie and concession kickbacks.

30m users probably 2 per month profit per which is 60m per month or 700m annual. Nflx is 2b profit annual. So one third of profit of nflx here potential and it a rapid timeframe.

[Makk1]

Thats not all options here. There is one that is far less dilutive to shareholders and might happen If Ted has any idea on how to save this ship.

Talks about their new model is going to encourage big time investors are running now, so The absolutely BEST way would be to get a CREDIT LINE at favorable terms here to sustain until profitability. The Only question here is If Ted is man enough to make that happen. Ive seen it happen before With similar cases and it makes The stock soar VERY high.
If this was The plan then The OS would be alot lower than anyone of us expected, altough I doubt it and I play for what I know. I dont put money on speculation

[Rocketstockpix]

Everyone can crunch numbers and try to figure out HMNY's valuation but I am sticking to a RS or CH 11 which will wipe everyone out who is buying here. Ted needs to PR something regarding this matter or trips is coming or we all get wiped out re RS - CH11

[BobDoleYahoo]

I don't think the OS is at 250 million. Judging from the price action, volume, pump/dump PRs, prior selling at around only 10% of the volume (which means we can't use volume alone to confirm what real dilution is), how the MP app is behaving etc., my own calculations, I still think we're in the 70-100 million OS range. My post here explains why it cannot be 280 million+, mathematically. It might be 150 million, maybe, but not over 200 million.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HMNY/community?p=HMNY&messageId=a6279782-54ff-4247-babe-c2d00d85409a&bcmt=1

I think using $68 million as a burn rate for all quarters is flawed. They made changes in early May to curb repeat movie watching (Avengers, Black Panther etc.), sharing of accounts on multiple devices etc., which supposedly lowered the burn rate by about 35%. How much it actually affected it long term? Unsure.

All their various 8-Ks released between May-July talking about cash burn, when I add up the numbers, don't really add up and are off a few million here and there. So either they made some math errors, or they're making up "close enough" numbers.

For example, the 8K dated 5-8-18 says $21.7 million was the cash deficit for the 7 months from Oct through April. I used FY 2017 numbers and Q1-Q3, 2017 numbers to derive Q4, 2017 numbers, which Q4 2017 worked out to be a cash deficit of $10.8 million and Q1 2018 (per the 10-Q said Gross Loss was $86.5 million). I then used this to determine April would have been $54.6 million cash deficit (151.9 - 10.8 - 86.5).

The 8-K dated 6-21-18 (which you'd think is more accurate since it's a later one) said they believe the cash deficit per month was $25 million for the 8 months of Oct through May. Doing the math, $200 million ($25x8) - $151.9 million ($21.7 x 7) = $48.1 million cash deficit for May, an 11.9% reduction, far from the 35% savings they claimed for May.

Yet their 8-K on 6-21 says May's cash deficit was $40 million only. AND they also said June was believed to be $45 million, and July at least $45 million. How could June & July be less than the calculated May using THEIR numbers they provided us???

If I work the math backwards and BELIEVE in the $40 million for May, and I do:

$200 ($25 x 8 months) - 86.5 - 10.8 - 40 (May) = April becomes $62.7 million cash deficit. If we take 40/62.7 = that's a 36% reduction in the cash deficit, which sort of matches their 35% reduction claim.

As you can see, there's a discrepancy if you do the math one way or another. Their figures just doesn't match.


1. They just continue to dilute like crazy down to sub penny land.

Possible. They don't want to do this because it puts them at a risk of a hostile takeover.

2. Get a merger or buyout offer that covers the finances needed.

Possible, but Ted Farnsworth won't want to lose face. He'd rather burn down what he built than sell it to have AMC laugh at him.

3. Come out with a fluff PR blitz to dilute shareholders on the run.

This is what they've been doing to attempt selling at higher prices, for less shares, to limit the dilution effect. It will only delay the inevitable.

4. Do another RS.

They need shareholder auth. They claim they can, from one authorized in 2016. They will only do a RS if it's TRULY going to help prevent delisting (which will ONLY be done when they are net even and won't dilute anymore - otherwise, MASSIVE tankage). They will also keep this to prevent a hostile takeover. I'm not worried about a RS. I'm more worried about continued dilution.


5. File for Bankruptcy protection. It appears Ted is willing to go down with the ship rather than sell, therefore Chp 11 would provide enough protection and time to come out of the gates in a few months like a new shiny penny ( no pun intended). Chp 11 would also provide DIP, and force providers not to shut of the services that seem to be on the edge at the moment.

Yes, this also very possible.

You forgot: 6. Delist to OTC and survive on a limited financial means