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techxen

08/04/18 5:06 PM

#12750 RE: orangecat #12748

Orangecat, I get your point on backing into the sales growth.

I guess I am looking at it from the other side of that coin. IMO I think the reference to the $80M was more around the perspective of how with the new facility they can expand the capacity with very little capital expenditure as it was in the context of describing the new plant's flexibility and in addressing some of the analyst's comments. You have been invested in this company as long as I have and we both know Dr. Chan is not going to imply on an investor conference call that they can it $80M in sales in a shorter time period - I think he hedged his comments and that they were more conservative, otherwise it could be construed as forward guidance.

Personally I think that if the direct sales force in Germany (now 38 people) keeps kicking butt like they did this past quarter, and with the other catalysts kicking in (e.g. expanded CE label, reimbursement, etc.), the company will get to that sales level much sooner. Btw, this was the first time I have heard that they are now seeing more pull through on the sales than push as well as how long the long lead time has been to get the initial sale.

If you haven't taken a look at this, CG on the Yahoo board keeps a spreadsheet updated with the latest quarterly product sales projections at different growth rates. The most recent sequential quarterly growth rate is 18.32%. CTSO is not consistently hitting any sequential growth rate, but the sheet illustrates what's possible. At a 17% sequential growth rate they will hit $80M in the next two years.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rc_zFvSauYIspP3S-YBkYUOz19bu0PytXCMjUE-owdE