Replies to post #235988 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[PlentyParanoid]

Based on what little we currently know and assuming nothing else - no future improvement nor degradation, no past flukes or shenanigans in phase 2a trial - something slightly better than the graph for PGA 0/1 response below indicates. Note that two sided confidences are for PGA 0/1 responses being within shown limits - not outside. One sided limit is for being above (lower curve) or below ( upper curve). As an example:

I am 95 % confident that phase 2b PASI 75 response will be below 50 % but also 75 % confident that it will be somewhere above 25 %. This, of course, only if nothing changes compared to phase 2a trial (I am hedging, for sure).