Yes it is, and early Aug it could be,
You have great instinct and do excellent a analysis on these things.
But, I have stopped selecting certain dates and here's why, last two times I did on here, I did with the information I had and others were able to put together as well.
What I did not have or know was much deeper than anticipated, so now I give a general time frame. Based on info at that time and things can and probably will change as more data he comes available.