One analyst said his average last year was ~$100k per trial, but that is likely based over the entire length of the trial, which is different for each phase. The mix of trials has also changed over the past year; Phase III trials have grown from 17 in Q1 last year to 31 in Q1 this year. My model is likely much simpler.
In Q1, Biopharma revenue was $3.3M ($3M from 214 clinical trials and $300k commercial) Reproductive Medicine was $500k, and Animal Health was $240k. They added 22 trials during Q1, but I don’t believe the trials contribute until the following quarter. My average is $14k per trial, ($3M divided by 214) so I added $300k for the 22 trials that were added during Q1 to the Q2 estimate (understanding the trial mix is likely different). I also guesstimated a 50% growth rate this quarter in commercial revenue, so my model shows: Biopharma revenue of 3.81M ($3.3M clinical trials and $500k commercial) Reproductive Medicine $540k, and Animal Health $260k, so total $4.61M.
Cryoport met with both Roth Capital and Needham last month so it appears that they may have been assisting with numbers on the World Courier deal, and then they both came out with upgrades and their price targets nearly doubled, so the potential for this deal is significant. I’m not sure how to model this revenue for Q3 and beyond. When is the revenue recognized? I think most of it is up-front, but term-based licenses are somewhat complicated since there are multiple components and usually some post contract support. I'll be interested to hear the few details they provide during the conference call. BTW - where is Rev3lation? I thought he was the numbers guy.
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