It a general cognitive error to fail to take into account base rates. The base success rate in drug development is 8% considering all attempts. Lord knows what it is for underfunded new ventures headed by less than stellar talent. I've heard its less than half that.
Bottom line, it's low and people tend to put aside base rates when getting caught up in colorful narratives that encourage dreams of wealth. That is not the fault of stock promoters. Yes, they take advantage of those tendencies. But that dance takes two.
It was not the legal responsibility of Gene or Anil to cite the base success rate.
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