Replies to post #35922 on Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. (IPCI)

[doogdilinger]

Brilliant overall post thanks Samsa! I too agree that the recent warrant registration maneuvering somehow positions IPCI to meet the NAZ shareholder equity requirement leaving the upcoming reverse split in 3 weeks the only other shoe to fall in order to regain compliance with the NAZ by/b4 the September due date for doing so.

So with that said where can IPCI possibly go in the reverse split era is the new focus as you laid out.

The first thing we need to see is how big the reverse split is going to be as I honestly think we're looking at a 1:15 ratio now.

And clearly with IPCI only having a couple hundred K in the bank the chances for an immediate $5M post r/s dilutive offering are approximately 99%...so the post reverse split era will be met with immediate dilution.

So unless and until Odidi makes the decision to get off his butt so to speak and start putting out a market story that he and IPCI can actually start executing and delivering on...my own thoughts are that the reverse split era will be no different than the pre reverse split era we've been suffering through over the past year.

[doogdilinger]

option 1, he inks a deal even without up front payment. signing a deal for both Regabatin and Rexista could pop the share price to the $3 range assuming he tells us the value is worth say 50 million each in future milestone payments. A 10 to 1 RS would then put us at $30 a shares with 5 million outstanding shares. He could then sell only 500k shares at get 15 million dollars! which would only amount to 10% of the company.

Option 2, he dilutes either before or even after the RS. with no news we sit at 35 cents. a RS of 10 to 1 gets us only to $3.50. He would need to then sell, 1.5 million shares or 25% of the company just to get 5 million dollars and keep the doors open another quarter.

If he takes option 2, he will lose control of the company and be forced out. Is that really a bad thing???? I could see us recovering from that just taking longer.

option 3 of course would be ink a deal with upfront monies. that would stave off further dilution for a time. are there any out there however? Possibly maybe with good HAP studies for Rexista however we dont expect those studies to be complete until September or October. so that wont help the immediate need for cash which is why I feel it will be option 1 or 2.

Unfortunately these past 4 and half years have proven Dr. Odidi completely incapable of securing any relevant/worthy deals on any products in IPCI's stagnant ANDA and NDA pipelines.

So although I love your option 1 ideas...I just don't see Dr. Odidi of being competent or capable of enough to secure any last minute miracle deal on Rexista or Regabatin now that the reverse split is on the table and all the sharks smell the blood in the water with the IPCI ship sinking.

Which then means your option 2 scenario is most likely closest to playing out. Which as your post also alludes to may eventually lead to the eventual positive of pushing him out as CEO and replacing him...but the new CEO's gonna have a plethora of work cut out for them attempting to turn this sinking ship around...so any positive turnaround is gonna take several months to play out with a new CEO and dilutive offerings will need to be immediately implemented with IPCI presently out of money again!

And finally regarding your option 3 scenario...I just think too much water has already flowed under the bridge so to speak and there's simply no deals out there for the taking that would stave off the pending reverse split and provide a miracle last minute solution.

Also 1 final thought as follows. IPCI receives a failing grade on how they present their story to market so I see no reason for anyone to expect any miraculous positives to suddenly come along. Hell they did their best to hide next months reverse split by how they went about filing the SEDAR shareholder proxy vote in the middle of last month giving the stupid June 28th shareholder of record date...only to turn around a month later and have to come clean that what the SOR were voting on on August 15th was a reverse split!

So for any of us to expect Odidi to suddenly and abruptly change how woeful and inept IPCI's storyline presentation skills are is a mistake...as we see no evidence whatsoever that he's planning on doing anything in the post reverse split era any differently than the way he's been doing things in the pre reverse split era! Which means he'll create enough room in the capital structure and share price to engage in post reverse split dilution for about 3 quarters minimum...and hope that he somehow gets the Oxycontin NDA candidate refiled with the FDA by end of year and another adcom scheduled by next summer.

In other words another full calendar year b4 maybe just maybe some actual value from IPCI's Oxycontin NDA candidate gets unleashed...but beyond that I see no meaningful progress taking place with Regabatin or their generics...and for all we know PODRAS is dead now since June 30th came and went with nothing but silence from this pathetic mgmt. team!

[tilator]

Fabius, I think That is where we need to focus our attention. As doog pointed out in the post immediately prior, we all know what the history and how we got to this point. Between his management AND the games being played we are where we are. The question is where can we possibly go ?

Honestly, I do not see delisting as an issue at this point. The recent reclassification of the warrants as now shares exercise-able at the strike prices allowed Odidi to carry those shares are shareholder equity and which is why they are now counted in the float. Equity that he can just not throw away paying the high salaries. at least not until he does something to get share price to the strike prices.

So that coupled with an RS allows us to maintain compliance. so taking that off the table where do we sit or what is in the future?

It still does not ease the cash flow issue. So I see 3 options;
option 1, he inks a deal even without up front payment. signing a deal for both Regabatin and Rexista could pop the share price to the $3 range assuming he tells us the value is worth say 50 million each in future milestone payments. A 10 to 1 RS would then put us at $30 a shares with 5 million outstanding shares. He could then sell only 500k shares at get 15 million dollars! which would only amount to 10% of the company.

Option 2, he dilutes either before or even after the RS. with no news we sit at 35 cents. a RS of 10 to 1 gets us only to $3.50. He would need to then sell, 1.5 million shares or 25% of the company just to get 5 million dollars and keep the doors open another quarter.

If he takes option 2, he will lose control of the company and be forced out. Is that really a bad thing???? I could see us recovering from that just taking longer.

option 3 of course would be ink a deal with upfront monies. that would stave off further dilution for a time. are there any out there however? Possibly maybe with good HAP studies for Rexista however we dont expect those studies to be complete until September or October. so that wont help the immediate need for cash which is why I feel it will be option 1 or 2.

what do others think? I feel we do have to look for what the worse case is at this point and plan for it and right now Options 1 or 2 are what I perceive as our worst cases.

1. Don't you think there is room for cutting expenses down?

2. Market cap is somewhere aroud 15M$ now. To keep compliance it needs 20M$ more. This can't be achieved by RS. How much do warrant conversion cover? Where does the rest come from?

3. If/when shorts drive price further down, even 20M$ wouldn't be sufficient.

[AngeloFoca]

signing a deal for both Regabatin and Rexista could pop the share price to the $3 range assuming he tells us the value is worth say 50 million each in future milestone payments. A 10 to 1 RS would then put us at $30 a shares with 5 million outstanding shares

Assuming that partnering Rexista and Regabatin could pop the price to $3.00... why would they then do a reverse split???? they would be in compliance... I would rather own 1,000 shares of a $3.00 stock than 100 shares of a $30 stock.

If... they could pop the stock to $3.00 a share... and I believe they could by partnering Regabatin alone... I would like to see them issue 10 million shares, to raise $30 million... then reclaim Seroquel and the others from "worthless than tits on a bull MNK" and set up for direct distribution of their complete line of generics.

Competing in the generics space is all about price and whose palm you grease... without a middle man I think they can compete favorably.

[wimike]

Samsa et all. Of course, all he wants is to dilute and collect a few more million. Whatever was the worse choice has become standard for this company to do. It's so ridiculous he is lacking any kind of business acumen.
As for Regabatin and Rexista. The first is getting too old. Every month that goes by it is worth less and less in a partnership and now you can expect to get sued since the originator has an ER drug out. Also, it would still be years away from market and if they sue which they would add two more years to it and millions of $$$ to fight it. This isn't obvious? If they couldn't do a partnership a year or two ago what makes them think they can do it now?

The later if they finally go through and get approval and get it to market....maybe best case 16 more months to market? There are 10 ahead of them peddling their AD opioid already. So we are almost last or are last to market. AT one time we were at the front of the class. What a shame.