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Replies to post #64894 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
07/28/18 9:48 AM
THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 27, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 773742 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 769896 following the high established Wed. Jul. 25, 2018, this price action warns that we have a pause in trend. However, we have now elected a Bullish Reversal from this immediate price action and closed on the soft-side at the end of the session failing to bounce sharply from the lows. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed below that low creating an outside reversal to the downside. Nonetheless, the market remains quite weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
The historical major high took place here in 2017 and we have since penetrated the low of last year intraday. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 1 year ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have a bullish market in motion for the past 0. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 864342 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 844707 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 741955. This provides a 12% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 898254 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 663066. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 26%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 773742, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 8.40% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come August in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has move to the downside so we could see a potential reaction low at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 780660 but closed on the weak side during June. We need to exceed that level during July to suggest a continued advance is likely. Support technically lies now at 741956 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 663067 becomes possible.
The overall tone of this market is neutral at this time as it is balanced on all levels daily through yearly..
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 23rd at 793331, which was up 48 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 793331 to 769896. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 793331. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 778424 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 756470 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 16 weeks overall.
Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 24 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th. The last high on the weekly level was 793331, which was created during the week of July 23rd, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Critical support still underlies this market at 663066 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 28 months. The previous monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 699114 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 780660, which was created during June. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
