Hey buddy, I think I was making a few different points that I didn't express well. I got my computer out so I can type some of it out. So I went back and took a look at how long it took them to put out the data from the phase 2 of 5211. They completed enrollment of 5211 on July 12 2017. It was only a 12 week study, so they would have gotten the last bit of their data around Oct 12 2017. They reported the topline data then Nov 28 2017. It took them 8 weeks (7 weeks and 6 days technically) to report the topline after data was fully available. Disclaimer being that they did say that they had some trouble getting some of the DXA data compiled, that may have been unique to that trial and wouldn't hold us up with 2809.
So using a similar timetable, our observation time period (where data is still being collected I believe) for 2809 ends on Sept 25. If we had to wait 8 weeks for the topline data, that would put data somewhere around Nov 20 2018 for vk2809.
Here are the two unrelated thoughts I was putting across. So they will present the full data set for 5211 on Sept 30. They will technically have all of the data for vk2809 at that time... I mean it won't be super organized and everything, but they will have it all. I think that this is really genius timing on their part. I think that it's at least possible (totally guessing here) that they will want to know how good their vk2809 data is, before they make a final decision on how to proceed in partnering 5211. It would technically effect buyout considerations as well, having all the data from both trials. For that reason, I am scratching my head wondering if possibly we won't hear anything about 5211 partnership until at least around the time of the sept 30 conference. If they are sitting on two blockbuster drugs, with data readily available, buyout may seem like a more reasonable venue to go down. Partnering on 5211 before they have 2809 data may impact bigger companies abilities to move through buyout, etc. I also wonder if that's why they registered this massive shelf, wondering if maybe their goal isn't buyout? All just guesses.
So my unrelated ramblings about the options... So don't get me wrong, I'm not in a hurry to part with my shares, and I still have a relatively large position. But I have been eyeing the Nov $20 calls (and the $22.5 and the $25's as well). I mean, it's stupid to sell covered calls if they get bought out before they expire lol. But I don't think that they would actually sell the company before they technically announce the 2809 topline data. I just think that it's gonna be a really close call... what happens first... the Nov call options expiring, or the 2809 topline data being released. I mean it's gonna be real close in my opinion. On the clinicaltrials.gov website, I believe they might even list December as the release date anticipation. What I have been thinking about doing, is selling some Nov $20 and up strike price covered calls, and using the money that I make by selling them, to buy more VKTX stock. I wouldn't sell those covered calls though, until late sept or early october... because I think they may go up in price between now and then, with sept 30 conference data coming, and a potential MDGL buyout happening (if not sooner, maybe before then). So after these things boost the price, I just wonder how much higher than $20 we could possibly get in stock price, without actually knowing that the 2809 data is good (2809 data being released). And as a technical piece, when I have been selling covered calls these past few months, I used the money to buy VKTXW. For whatever reason, VKTXW is trading at face value and their is really no time premium being charged, so it makes no sense (to me at least) to buy VKTX, when you can buy VKTXW for the inherent value.
I'm not giving investment advice, and have no clue how all this will play out. All just my ramblings and thoughts, don't do what I do lol. Standard disclaimers on doing your own DD etc to everyone on here!
Hope all is well buddy. And yeah, I am equally intrigued by the MDGL buyout rumors. That spanish site seems like junk and has a history of bad calls, but this could be real. I mean, MDGL said they were entertaining talks awhile back, and this stuff takes awhile, but not too long. And anyone who is gonna buy them, is probably gonna want to buy them long before they have to meet with the FDA to discuss phase 3 designs, so the timing seems reasonable on this rumor, even if the site doesn't seem as reputable.
Anyone, just wanted to check in and say hello to all the fellow longs, and keep an intellectual discussion going. I never dreamed that all of this stuff would be setting up this well, when I first got into this stock. The timing on all of these catalysts, and MDGL's uncanny success to date, has been outrageous. August conference call, Sept 30 5211 data, potential 5211 partner at some point (maybe, who knows), and 2809 data within 1-2 months possibly after 5211 data. There is really no lull in there. Especially when considering their other pipeline stuff (which will probably have zero effect on share price with this big stuff looming, but who knows). And also news approaching from GTXI. It's like the perfect storm imho.
Glad to share the ride with everyone, hope all is well. Wishing everyone an enjoyable rest of the summer, take care all
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