Replies to post #31853 on The New CS Board

[Oddlot]

While "knowing" implies a certainty re the future which is unobtainable, the conditions today support a fear of the future. Bull mkts rally on fear and end when all are fearless and long. IMHO we have a small additional potential, to 3200 +/-100, but I dont "know" either.

Search for recent comments re Paul Tudor Jobes as an example of grounded fears.

A famous quote, author unknown, re bubbles is that they make every one a an idiot. You either experience huge opportunity cost, or real dollar loss during the break.

Good trades to you.

Oddlot

[jumanji0881]

When and How ? -

No one can really know when, but I'm expecting a financial crisis and recession within the next 6 - 12 months. The overwhelming problem is the debt globally. That debt is now $247 Trillion and expanding rapidly. And that debt will have a major impact on the next recession. Sovereign debt will explode higher and corporate and private debt will be defaulted on. I also expect rates on sovereign debt to rise in the next recession. Asset prices in both stocks and real estate are absolutely insane in the US and bond prices are unreal in the EU. I just read John Mauldin's latest newsletter and he is predicting the HY bond market will start the crisis and that it will occur before the end of 2019. I also think it could start in China where their debt levels are extreme or in Europe (watch Italy) or in Japan. Emerging markets are also very weak and they have a lot of US$ denominated debt (watch Argentina, Brazil, and Turkey)