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frrol

07/08/18 3:56 PM

#233826 RE: sox040713 #233795

He could, depending on how far along we are in negotiations and how the market values our stock if P news is "good/great". I don't know that the company is delaying a B deal for P results, and the decision between upfront B money and royalty (risk-assumed back-end money) is primarily based on the cost of those two capital sources. To makes the point clear, I'll use a stark example:

Let's say P results are incredible, as is the market reaction. Our stock goes solidly to $5 (not saying this happens, at all). That means our capital cost is relatively cheap compared to BP upfront money and the opportunity cost of the lower royalty. In this case, absolutely make a back-loaded B deal.

Or lets say our stock doesn't budge. Take full development money and the relatively lower royalty rate, of course.

But there are several jokers in the deck. What is the timing of B deal vs P results? What is our cost of capital (ie, share price) from P results? What is our cost of capital from the B deal signing itself?

We've been so starved for capital that I suspect management would take a fully funded B development offer and say "done." It's the low risk approach, and it also appears to be what they intend from the latest share sale terms.