Replies to post #6518 on Traders of the Caribbean

[Stock Lobster]

I post these simply an FYI.

For years, I have regularly rounded up articles from other parts of the world, as a baromter of thoughts and sentiments elsewhere, or even thinking out of the mainstream in the US or Canada. For this reason, I was not surprised by the breakout of the Iraq war, which was already discussed as inevitable in many newspapers in Europe and the Middle East in 2002, when it was still being presented as merely one option here in the US press. Similarly, I was actively discouraging everyone I knew...even my own sister, from buying a house the past three years. This did not make me popular...I might add. I even put my own house for sale at the height of the insanity, because it was clear from researching the loans being given, that a foreseable and painful downturn was inevitable.

It always pays to look reality straight in the face, no matter how uncomfortable it may make us at the time.

For example, if you knew that a force five hurricane was forecast to hit your town, wouldn't it be better to be aware of it while the highways are clear, and the gas stations are still open? There's always the possibiity that the hurricane may veer away at the last minute, but it would only be prudent to take precautions, not go down to the beach for a party.

Sometimes here in the US, esp. in my cozy towns, it is easy to think everyone is caught up only in "Survivor..the Revenge"...or whatever else is on cable. It is impossible for most of us to even consider how differently we are perceived elsewhere.

I agree with you about the sabre rattling. This has been, for several years now, the development of a new "cold war" dyanmic. The confrontation with Iran, has many parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis, imo. Then, as now, Russia is lurking in the background flexing it's muscles. Iran and North Korea are really proxies for the larger tensions emerging between Russia, China and the United States and allies. The alliance between Russia and China, and the rise of the Shanghai Cooperative Organization (the SCO) is probably the most troubling trend.

Nevertheless, there are always solutions, to even the most dire situation, but good to consider what could happen just in case a perfect storm of Crazy People, Morons and Incompetents are in power in key countries. Heartening to look back, and see that the last cold war was effectively contained for years, with only occasional erruptions in proxy nations. Lets hope for a similar development here.

I was a history major in college, with a specialization in European history leading up to, and post World War I. There was a war that didn't need to happen the way it did, but it it was universally mishandled in just about every major country involved.

Sometimes it seems that long eras of peace and prosperity, like the 60 odd years of the Victorian and Edwardian eras...make people complacent, and worse...itchy to try out all the new toys. I always keep my eye on any new surge of nationalism as a definite warning signal.

Putin's actions of late...esp. his flexing of the energy muscles with Europe...have him on my watch list.

But nothing is inevitable. I hope.