SPY 268.57 = 100 day sma above which the dividend-adjusted SPY price action has closed since late May 2018 ( Charting platforms provided by brokers do NOT dividend-adjust the price history )
( the chart shows Dividend-Adjusted price history, unlike most broker charting platforms which do NOT … dividends are paid quarterly and the actual price history is lowered by the dollar amount of the Dividend at StockCharts.com)
the reader will need a Pro level subscription at StockCharts.com to correctly view the link
SPY 200 day EMA now at 267.82 = the current 1st potential downside target if all the other chart elements continue to decline below their August 15, 2018 lows
* McSum's for NYSE commons and for Nasdaq 100 are the ones now below their most recent McSum decline lows of recent weeks, so high vigilance on this data set is necessary
SPY 279.46 = 50-day EMA value at Wednesday April 22 close, and the bullish case depends on a lasting advance above the 50-day EMA
/ES futures 2798 = approx. 50-day EMA vs. 2808.00 April 22nd high achieved only minutes before the cash market close vs. /ES 2819.50 = Monday April 13th session high achieved near the Sunday Globex open
* bears want to see a lasting decline below the SPY 600-day SMA
* bulls need the internals shown for the four indices to surpass the current April high, and move toward the plus 10% level ... or the SPY price action attempts to move upward are likely to eventually fail & reverse to the downside
Bulls need the internals to hold near or above the +10% level for consecutive weeks to minimize the potential for near-term price damage
Bears' optimal chart location for these internals is holding below their zero line for consecutive weeks
* bears require the plot of the $SPX new 52-week lows to eventually surpass and spend a decent portion of the future days above the 10-day EMA, OR the bulls have an optimal opportunity to maintain control of the price action, since the bulls currently & only briefly maintain a limited degree of control of the $SPX internals, both in terms of the daily plot of the $SPX new 52-week price high count and the $SPX new 52-week price low count ( as of the April 29, 2020 close )
* SPY this week has been leading the $SPXEW and the S&P Composite 1500 index in the proximity approach to the 100-day SMA, and bulls must see improvement in the equality of this approach from below to the 100-day SMA by the three indices
* at this moment, the negatively divergent S&P 500 cumulative net Advance-Decline line's lower highs in recent weeks vs. the $SPX higher daily price closes as of Monday May 18, 2020 is not constructive for the bullish case until the negative divergence by the S&P 500 A-D line is resolved
chart #5 - $NYA daily vs. 21-day SMA and vs. potential horizontal bull/bear values
11,195.96 = 21-day SMA as of Friday's May 22 close ... which resides below Friday's closing price and the 21-day SMA sits below the $NYA price action for five consecutive days
* the $SPX 50-day SMA = 2731.47 as of Friday's May 22 close, which represents a potential downside target once bears retake control of the price action in the intermediate term
SPY 299.67 = 150-day SMA at Tuesday's May 26, 2020 close SPY 299.64 = 150-day SMA at Friday's close
SPY 150-day SMA is a powerful bull/bear pivot chart location...
time will tell whether bulls have the Staying Power to hold price for 37 trading hours above the 150-day SMA once above it in the future
charting $SPX or the /ES emini futures for this vigilance item is not as reliable as SPY in my experience, even though briefing.com keeps its paying subscribers updated on the $SPX 150-day SMA vs. daily closes
S&P Composite 1500 index daily Advance-Decline percentage values in histogram format --
the zero line equals the bull/bear pivot for the Advance-Decline smoothed with the 3-day SMA & 13-day EMA, and the current chart condition as of Friday June 12 displays a mixed message since:
the 3-day is far below the zero line while the 13-day is slightly above the zero line on Friday's bounce
plus 2.79 = current value of the 13-day EMA for the Advance-Decline as of June 12 minus 34.16 = 3-day SMA value
* at its recent low, the 3-day SMA value printed a negative value worse than any seen since late 2018, highlighting the speed and fierce quality of last week's decline by both price action and Advance-Decline internals
============= 689.77 = 21-day SMA, which bears must hold as Resistance 674.91 = S&P Composite 1500 index 233-day EMA value must be defended by bulls during future declines 669.35 = 100-day SMA 657.81 = 50-day SMA
daily cumulative Net new highs minus new lows remains in a rising trend for multiple weeks for four indices, so this is a bullish set of US equity market internals until a downside reversal by these internals actually occurs -
$SPX to $OEX daily ratio's late July bounce failed & reversed below its upper Bollinger Band, which is a negative for considering that the the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 index are equally participating with the S&P 100 stocks in upward price action
* bulls want the ratio to hug the upper Bollinger Band for multiple days
** the Negative Divergence of the ratio's July high vs. the June and February 2020 is a stellar amount
long-term history does present the reality that SPY and $OEX upward price action is sustainable for multiple months when the $SPX is under performing the $OEX and hugging the ratio's lower Bollinger Band
smoothed daily $NYAD and the $NYMO have been weakening since 3rd week in July ... without a lasting upward movement by the two from their July 31st location, the future bullish outcome is less likely for US equities
* the red horizontal line I placed marking a common reversal level from the upper boundary region of the 15,3,6 Full Stochastic is now briefly surpassed as of the Thursday August 6, 2020 close
* most of the chart elements other than the price action are NOT especially bullish for forecasting more immediate upward price action by SPY, unless these multiple S&P 500 internals and indicators actually improve to the upside and improve soon & steadily by more than a marginal amount
SPY has not achieved a daily close below its 55-day EMA since early May 2020, so bulls and bears both require vigilance if a chart character change for SPY actually takes place for consecutive multiple days
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