Harry, what timeline are you looking at to short it? It feels like it's getting closer, i think the tax cuts extended the timeline. I'm thinking the downturn will be in 2nd half of 2019 - 2020. It feels like a catalyst,( st loans, home mortgages again, car loans, rising rates) will show up soon. Right now there is still a shortage in workers and I'm not what changes it. What are your thoughts?