Replies to post #149242 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Sherlock356]

that is a likely scenerio imo....barring unforseen events ie major terror etc...JSP aint bettin on a real estate recession...and I thinks its almost a certainty.

[goodluck]

Zeev,
Do you think that the Bush admin will start to issue the 30 year bond again to finance the deficit? The pension funds would like it for sure, would help them out with more stable duration, planning.

[duper_man]

Zeev, interesting analysis but I don't "buy" all of it. Once the bubble burst the fed quickly came to the rescue but the market didn't respond. Foreign fund dlows dried up in early 01 if you recall.

Agree that first drop from the Sep highs will be bought at end of October. But no cyclical bull. A double top at best in Jan-Feb 04 and straight down from there.

IMHO 04 is the year Zeev, not 05. I expect most of damage will be done by 05. We'll be fixing things in 05 as we flatten out at the bottom and volume dries up.

[lee kramer]

Zeev: I like your analysis. Liquidity is often the key to rising markets and we seem to be awash in liquidity. Sharp moves up and down for a while? Probably. The markets will eventually, [in fact have started already,] to call the tune on interest rates. We're approaching an election year so the administration will do all they can to keep voters pleased with the economy. Once the election next year is over, some nasties may occur.

[Babylon]

Zeev, a quick clarification please, primarily of the bold:

I think that this will set the stage for another bear market (forecasting the next recession?). When,? Right now my best guess is a sharp hit here that will be bought, maybe another weakness from higher levels (higher than the peak in the next week or two), possibly early next year (February?), and then from a late March through another third major leg in this cyclical bull. A lot will depend on how high LT interest rates go in the next six to 12 months. I am still in the camp that has 2005 as a nasty bear market.

My interpretation of this was possible near term weakness (the short but sharp variety) soon (anytime between now and the end of October), that gets bought ultimately. This may lead to a interim term high afterwards (possibly in February), which gets corrected downward shortly thereafter (possibly into late March) - to be followed by the resumption of the cylical bull move to live out its remaining months ahead through a good part of the election year, before the punch bowl is removed. The strength or weakness of such an advance, will be strongly influenced (possibly dictated) by the activity of LT rates.

I'd just like to make sure I'm understanding it the way I should be... TIA

[jdaasoc]

Argentina it's baaaaaack!


Argentina 'in new debt default'


Nestor Kirchner has criticised the IMF
Argentina has defaulted on a $2.9bn (£1.8bn) debt payment due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after it failed to agree a last ditch loan deal, reports have said.
Both the Reuters and Associated Press news agencies said that an anonymous source had told them that the payment had not been made in time, but added that negotiations were continuing.

The default had been expected after the country said on Tuesday that it would not delve into its reserves to make payments.

The two sides have been trying to negotiate a three-year deal that would allow Argentina to just pay the interest on the $13bn of debts it owes the IMF, allowing it put more money into its social programme.

But president Nestor Kirchner's government has failed to agree to two demands from the IMF - that banks must be compensated for last year's collapse and that utility firms must be allowed to raise prices.

Both these measures are highly unpopular domestically and perceived to be helping out big business at the expense of the poor.

Little impact?

Argentina's economic collapse at the end of 2001 led to a currency devaluation, the closure of banks, widespread poverty and rioting.

Argentina has an internal debt that's more important than its debt with the IMF

Jorge Ceballos, Leader of the jobless demonstrators' movement
The country needs to find a solution to its IMF debts before it can begin to restructure $90bn of debt it defaulted on in December 2001.

Observers worry a fresh default will damage investor's confidence.

"The day to day will not change, but a default is serious because it means that Argentina is refusing to deal with major economic issues that surged from last year's collapse and could eventually undermine the recovery," said Sebastian Rodrigo, a lawyer who advises local and foreign investors in Argentina.

But some economists said a default would have little immediate impact on the Argentine economy as it would take some time for any penalties to come into effect, and by then a new deal may have been reached.

IMF under fire

Thousands of unemployed Argentines demonstrated against the IMF in Buenos Aires on Tuesday.

"Argentina has an internal debt that's more important than its debt with the IMF," said Jorge Ceballos, a 43-year-old leader of the jobless demonstrators' movement.

"Instead of paying the IMF, we should pay to improve our public health system, boost teachers' salaries and end hunger in our devastated country," he said.

The Argentine government had received some backing on Monday from the US - by far the most influential member of the IMF - which called for flexibility.

"The US believes the conditions for reaching an agreement with the IMF are favourable and that Argentina enjoys terrific political support from the US and the G8 in general," said US Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noriega.