randygee - My strongest reading pointing to recession is found in the study of frog entrails. In periods of prosperity and sustainable growth in GDP frog entrails have a light tan color. In periods of decline such as housing bubbles bursting and problems in the auto industry, retail, and rising commodity prices (real soon), frog entrails become a darkish brown to nearly black color. You might have also noticed the terrific flight to safety taking place as large caps hit new highs and small, mid caps and transports fail to confirm. Then there is the fact that hard landings follow fed interest rate raising with regularity. (I don't think the fed is finished raising rates yet, and the market is pricing in a rate cut, not good when they raise rates again.)
But the main thing is those frog entrails. I doubt there is a better indicator out there.
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