Replies to post #461123 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[bradford86]

At this point in time, I do not. If I did, I could easily enter into sales of what I own in order to exchange them and get common.

At this point, when I do the math for a projected IPO price I do not think that it is low enough for me to want to own common. Basically, if the IPO price is above $7, common are the way to go.

Consider for instance that after the IPO or as part of the IPO that the government who will basically own 40% if the stock basically needs to sell it within 2 years (AIG road map).

this large stakeholder forced liquidation as well as perception problems (the last 10 years is not easily forgotten), i think will prevent the GSEs from trading at what i think is a fair normal market valuation...

but eventually once they are recapitalized i expect them to basically pay 100% of their after tax income in dividends...

at which point i think that you have to look at them and wonder what their yield will be and then based on your projections for their normalized net income, pump out an expected price.

at that point.. $10-$13 doesn't seem too far fetched, but i don't know.. a lot of it depends on factors yet to be determined..

all considered, people buying into an ipo want to make money just like the rest of us, so if you look at the moelis plan the commons originally ipo at a discount and then while they get recapped rise in value until they start paying dividends.

i do not expect any money stolen by the government to be returned to the companies or shareholders.

i don't think that josh or tim block anyone with opposing views. i think that there are people out here who are incredibly frustrated with what has happened, what is happening, and what is going to happen.

all said and done, everyone from this price by my understanding of what is happening and what i expect to happen will be better off..

so, anyway, there are a few crazy people out here, of which i am one of them..

while we've been doing this, there have been dozens of better things to do which we haven't done because we've been too busy getting our face smashed in with this one.