Clarification- as for a short term bounce in oil and gold IMO this may be as far as we go for now, do not recommned boarding the train here, note many mining equities well off lows in a very short time. Consolidation, ST reversal not at all out of the cards, simply see lows as in and no serious move upwards to be expected prior to US elections.
P.S. If bush looses the senate and house dollar weakness very likely as political threats weaken safe haven attributes
As for oil in particular no sense a bottom is in as many factors should keep it weak ST, large supply, manipulations, politics, however see that rest of commodities leading the way as one would expect with a widening war on the horizon, showing/belying the st/contrived nature of weakness in crude.
As for OPEC it really matters little IMO. Very little official excess capacity and unofficially none and declining, all pumps full bore. The real interest is whether the 'enemeies' such as Iran, Venezuela, Russia push the envelope and cut production, to protect price so as to finance there preparations for the coming conflict and indeed to precipate it. I do beleive we are seeing this.
I think many ignore fact Iran is serious about preemptive action before US is ready, very unlike past conflicts where the target stood back while forces were gathered and mustered, certainly Israel is seeing such things as with Khamenis speech last week with a rifle at his side, buildup of US naval forces likley complete by end of October, fleet already assembled in Mediterranean, and set for manouvers in Gulf late in Oct., Iran preparing three fronts with Hezbullah in Lebanon, Syria in the Golan, and support of Hamas in the west bank and gaza, not to mention attacks on forces in Iraq and attacks from Iran itself. Russia has armed Iran to the teeth including sunfires and the like making US carriers sitting ducks, very much worth it to sink carriers which are sitting ducks. Bush may singlehandedly quash the omnipotent character of US military power with his quest for war. I would say that the silence out there is deafening.
Ah yes the etrenal pessimist, but calling like I see it, falling dollar, spike in oil, gold silever and commodities up up and away. No way Bush holds the house and senate without shenmanigans, oil and gold will at worst move sideways as such unknowns require a nervous premium with charges of impeachment and war crimes and treason at the highest echelons hinging on this election.
IAC- enjoy this quite time with family and cash as 'exciting' times on the horizon IMO. I have two fine children a boy and girl who are growing up in this world so unlike the one I grew up in. Never can I remember such times in my childhood, the old curse of 'may you live in interesting times". Would ask if you have taken time to put aside some resources should Bird Flu evolve. My read of such sites as recombionics is that all threats here remain and indeed have increased. We can no longer rely upon general media for our information. A little project to keep you occupied as we watch.
Got tuna (smile)
The very best Andrew
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