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Replies to post #24592 on Market Direction and Stock Trends
04/28/18 9:22 AM
OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 27, 2018: Dow Jones Industrials closing today of 2431119 so far is trading down about 1.65% for the year from last year's closing of 2471922. Thus far, we traded down the previous day. Immediately, the market was an inside trading session warning of a brief pause in trend following the high established Thu. Apr. 26, 2018. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 2462227 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 2370872. This provides a 3.71% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 3081752 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 2241590. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 27%.
The last event was a low established during 2009, which has been a nine year rally from that low to date warning from a trading perspective, a pause in trend is possible.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in Dow Jones Industrials so be focused. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month. We now breakout of this range to proceed in that direction be it up or down technically speaking.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 282.0% from the last cycle low established during 2009, which has been only a 8 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 4236.7% from the strategic low established during 1974, which has been a 43 year rally from that key event.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both neutral reflecting resistance forming at 2382873.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 2nd at 2334452, which was down 10 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 22nd. We have seen the market drop shaply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 2437504. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The last high on the weekly level was 2485897, which was created during the week of April 16th. The last weekly level low was 2334452, which formed during the week of April 2nd. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. However, we still remain above key support 2370873 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 2241590 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 31 months. The last monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015, and only a break of 2336029 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 2661671, which was created during January.
