Replies to post #218534 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

BMY-JNJ collaboration could be bad for PTLA, if FXIa inhibition usurps FXa inhibition as the preferred MoA for anticoagulation.

[biopharm]

This is an odd partnership insofar as BMY and JNJ each have big-selling anticoagulant drugs (Eliquis and Xarelto, respectively) whose sales could be cannibalized by BMS-986177 if FXIa inhibition turns out to be a better MoA for anticoagulation than FXa inhibition.

On the other hand, by the time BMS-986177 gets to market, there won’t be much patent life remaining on Eliquis or Xarelto, so BMS-986177 could be considered a lifecycle management program for both BMY and JNJ (but not for PFE and Bayer, who co-own Eliquis and Xarelto, respectively).

Odd indeed

Must be lots of drugs and relative MOAs on the line and Biomarkers would be of upmost importance

[Johnny_C]

Plus, it has a long way to go for approval. It will have to be better than Eliquis or payers will not pay.

[DewDiligence]

BMY/JNJ re BMS-986177 opportunity:

All but forgotten amid the CELG merger is the FXIa oral-anticoagulant program where BMY is partnered with JNJ in development of a compound called BMS-986177 (#msg-140083631).

It hasn’t been completely overlooked, however. Citi’s Andre Baum just upgraded BMY to Buy based largely on the potential of BMS-986177. From Barron’s:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bristol-myers-stock-celegene-pipeline-eliquis-51578406501

Baum wrote that BMS-986177 could “expand and replace” what he says is a $17 billion market for so-called new oral anticoagulants [mainly Eliquis and Xarelto].

“We anticipate 1st approval [of BMS-986177] in 2024, shortly before the anticipated [loss of exclusivity] for Eliquis,” Baum wrote. “We regard our $1 billion risk-adjusted sales estimate as highly conservative.”

Eliquis loses exclusivity in the US and most major markets in 2026* (#msg-149837229).

*BMS/PFE have settled patent litigation with MYL and some other generic-Eliquis filers, although litigation with other patent challengers continues.

[DewDiligence]

BMY presents phase-2 Milvexian data at AHA:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211115005987/en

Milvexian is an oral anticoagulant that inhibits Factor XIa, a new MoA. Compared to FXa inhibitors such as Eliquis and Xarelto, Milvexian may be able to offer comparable efficacy with less bleeding risk.

BMY is developing Milvexian with JNJ, pursuant to a 2018 collaboration (#msg-140083631). BMY hopes Milvexian can replace some or all of the revenue from Eliquis, which loses exclusivity in 2028. Phase-3 trials for Milvexian are slated to start in 2022.