So you are telling us your guess was only off by 40% absolute difference in SOM incidence ... or overestimated the benefit of brilacidin by over 3 times.
Top line mITT 60% placebo vs. 43% brilacidin developed SOM. 17% absolute difference versus your guess of 56% (70% and 14%).
Consistently overoptimistic at least.
I tend to be optimistic myself so see where you are coming from somewhat.
Hope a BP likes the modest benefit in preventing SOM with a safe, relatively patient friendly rinse and willing to partner on Phase 3 studies.
That's not the B-OM results. But it is another example of the foolish mistakes in stats and "predictions". Biotech is very tricky for retail investors.