Replies to post #42833 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi JD, Re: Market Risk..................

That negative Oscillator value shows a bit of relief in market risk. My own risk indicator flashed a brief high risk signal at the end of January of this year. It only lasted three weeks but all three indexes have declined quite a bit since then with the Dow 30 being off over 9% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both off, too, but a bit less.

It's pretty nasty so far on Wall Street today. I'm still not getting much in the way of buy signals, however. I did add some shares of Intl Paper about a week ago (+12% more shares). I had about the same number of buys and sells during March. Most everything is now below its 26 Week Moving Average price with IAU (gold) being an exception.

Index/Account                         Change YTD 
 Dow 30                                 -2.49% 
 S&P 500                                -1.22% 
 Nasdaq Composite                       +2.32% 
 Tom's Sandbox AIM Stocks               +1.18% 
 Tom's UBA Retirement acct              -0.98% 
 Tom's all US ETF portf.                -0.20% 
 Tom's Income Portf                     -3.38% (living expenses included) 
 Tom's all Intl ETF portf.              +2.83%

I'm not setting the world on fire with my results but with trading and substantial cash assets I've held up okay so far this year.

As quarterly earnings start reporting I guess we'll find out if we get a chance to put any cash back to work or if we'll go back to a long boring bull market. :-)

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi JD, Re: Market Risk...............

Here's another market risk indicator and what it suggests for cash as a percentage for diversified equity portfolios. Anything 33% and above is bearish and anything 20% and below is bullish. Median value since 1982 is 26%, current value is 29% and falling.



Peak risk showed up a couple of weeks after the market peaked. The last bullish period was back in early 2016. That was a pretty good call.