Replies to post #404 on Ampio Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMPE)

[Chess Master]

What is very interesting about that article was that someone pointed out that the probability number in the projection was only 9%. Was that a typo? I read further "The probability of approval number should be 88.4% and if used in the model with ONLY KL-4 patients yields a risk adjusted value of $6.524 billion."
So if ONLY KL-4 patients $6.5 Billion valuation. How conservative is that assumption?? So what I think is being said is that 9% should be replaced by an 88.4% and you get the real number.

This stock is so cheap its almost criminal what these shorts are doing.

[XenaLives]

This is really interesting, thanks for posting the DD.

Avoided a knee replacement with PT myself. Didn't have much choice because of metal issues but I know first hand that the pressure to have the replacement is big in the medical community. It's the old "When all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail" syndrome.

Effect on Orthopedic Landscape – First-Line Treatment Designation

Right now the orthopedic market does conservatively 640,000 TKR’s per year. AMPE is seeking a label for up to 5 injections of AmpionTM as needed. Orthopedic surgeons might have had the opportunity to make a judgement call on performing a TKR surgery instead of using AmpionTM. The release of this new this new data statistically shows that AmpionTM should be the first-line treatment in KL-4 patients before attempting a TKR. Ultimately the FDA makes the decisions on this matter but standard governmental guidelines reveals that any first-line treatment that shows an improvement of 30% over the existing standard of care would likely get the first-line treatment designation. Should AMPE get first-line treatment designation, orthopedic surgeons would be required to use AmpionTM before attempting a TKR. This labeling designation could give AMPE the TKR market on a silver platter.

When doctors see the effect of the drug on the most diseased patients, which is measured in weeks, it’s not hard to envision that use of the drug would be prescribed on less severe indications in place of prescribing opiates, corticosteroids and hyaluronic acid. Since doctors see patients at all stages of disease progression, this could be a real multiplier effect driving off label use of the drug.

http://emerginggrowth.com/ampio-pharmaceuticals-inc-nasdaq-ampe-extended-trial-shows-patients-can-avoid-total-knee-replacement/