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Replies to post #64826 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
03/31/18 9:39 AM
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Thu. Mar. 29, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 706345 and is trading up about 2.31% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Wed. Mar. 28, 2018. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 743900 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 677948. This provides a 8.86% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 867696 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 633458. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 26%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come June in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. Last month produced a low at 663067 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 744109 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Focusing on the near-term level, the market has closed up 63.9% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Concentrating on the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 522.7% from the strategic low established during 2002, which has been a 15 year rally from that key event.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 699267.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 12th at 763727, which was up 29 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. We have seen the market drop shaply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 699267. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 763727, which was created during the week of March 12th. The last weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 699267 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 687969 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 633458 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 24 months. The last monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 692408 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 750577, which was created during January, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
