Replies to post #49252 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

OddLot, Your question is perfectly timed.


I've updated my data sets and crunched the numbers for NYA, SPX, and INDU. I'm using bandpass filters to measure the 3.3 yr and 8.3 yr cycles, so there is a slight lag.

The New York Stock Exchange Average (NYA) is a very broad index covering over 2000 companies. The 8.3 year cycle topped in June 2015, and is entering the steepest part of the down phase. The 3.3 year cycle just topped and ticked down this week. The 3.3 year cycle was so strong that it penetrated the bandpass filter for the 8.3 year cycle.

With the larger trend down and the intermediate trend ticking down, there is little upside potential. This phase of the bear market should last a good 12-18 months. I have not been able to adjust the filters to see a 3rd, longer cycle simultaneously with the 3.3 and 8.3 year cycles, but the indication is the longer cycle is topping.

For the SPX and INDU, their 8.3 yr cycles also topped in the June 2015 timeframe. Their 3.3 yr cycles still have not reached top tick, but the upward momentum has pretty much ground to a halt.

Exit all long positions.