Replies to post #217978 on Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

From cash burn perspective it may well be a positive as you suggest. From a sales standpoint with respect to RT002 sales on approval, I think it can have a negative impact. The best sales pitch is a simple uncomplicated one. This deal complicates the RT002 messaging in my opinion and makes me hesitant to invest additional funds in RVNC for now assuming you believe as I do that the main value prop RVNC has is in RT002 for aesthetics.

Consider all the opportunities for additional Allergan fear uncertainty and doubt. For example, lets say RT002 gets approved but endless citizen petitions and legal actions delay the Biosim. I can see Allergan saying, "what Revance really wants is to get their Biosim approved because they know RT002 is no good". or how about "why are they trying to do a biosim- is it because they know Botox is better?" So RT002 sales suffer while the biosim gets delayed for whatever reason. (Note- I think RT002 currently has a highly predictable/probable path to approval in 2019 whereas the Biosim is a long ways off and has unknown risks yet to present.)

The above gets added to the main Allergan messaging:
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/look-out-allergan-doc-surveys-show-botox-competitive-threat-real

Allergan, for its part, isn’t convinced that “longer lasting” necessarily means “better” when it comes to product selection. Patients have more freedom to choose their timing with a shorter-acting product. “When you have the ability to take a treatment and then you get to control when you take your next treatment, that’s a certain amount of balance,” Mitchell Brin, Allergan’s Chief Scientific Officer for Botox, said in an interview during the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference earlier this month.

“If you have an unwanted event, you want that event ... to go away in a reasonable period of time,” he added.

In his own survey, though, Wells Fargo’s David Maris found earlier this month that 44% of physicians said they thought Botox’s duration was ideal or nearly ideal, while 56% said they would prefer a longer duration.

Maris cautioned against putting too much stock into the results, however.

“We note that doctors often say things like this before an approval ... but the reality is that many patients demand Botox by brand and doctors have not switched neurotoxins a great deal historically,” he wrote to clients.

I added the bold for emphasis. We know Allergan is pretty rattled given their reactions. This is going to be a tough battle for share. Todd Zavodnick- Revance's Chief Commercial Officer and President, Aesthetics & Therapeutics has his work cut out for him.

[DewDiligence]

RVNC does have the Botox cell line, as previously rumored; this is slide #61 from MYL’s Investor Day presentation today (http://investor.mylan.com/static-files/6b4f3f3f-7247-47de-82fa-5fb140d89850 ):

[Bickema]

I'm no longer neutral on this deal. The new inference that RVNC has the Botox cell line (#msg-139376820, bottom) tips my view in favor of bullishness.

If Revance had the cell line wouldn't that mean even more leverage in negotiating financial terms with Mylan?