Not baseless. Accurate. Amgen knows what will get approved.
Trial failures are NOT due to not knowing what will get approved. Trial failures come from bad trial results. That is why BP generally pull the trials themselves and don't waste time submitting them to the EMA or FDA for approval when they know approval is unlikely.
Or if they do, it is because they have pumped a ton of money into it and are willing to play the odds. But even then, they know that FDA approval is a longshot.
IF AXAL is so great, they should know with a high degree of precision that it will get approved.
Evaluating whether completed trial results are good enough for approval is a completely different thing from knowing whether a drug will work before a trial.
To put it in other words: A 1-15 football team will not make the NFL playoffs. A 15-1 team will make the NFL playoffs. A 9-7 team may make the playoffs.
So if AXAL's results are really good, they are in and AMGN knows it.
If AXAL is like a 9-7 team, then the partnership deal will be lousy anyway and won't affect the buyout price.
People keep preaching that the science is the value, not the stock price. AXAL approval only affects the stock price, not AMGN's opinion of the science.
FAct is there is no benefit to waiting to sell ADXS. In fact there is a cost as the bloated expenses and cash burn continue, and the company is at the risk of more Clinical Holds.
"Your post struck a chord with the "Mgmt hasn't done enough wrong to warrant concern for dilution in the next 6 mos or so" folks. They ought to name a street after ya. Maybe a stout beer." How bout a 120 proof Bourbon?
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