Replies to post #45969 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[researcher59]

Wade must be ecstatic for the moment. PCMI is bidding over $10 in premarket on strong volume of 55k. He's the only who got in at the bottom ! I'm still sitting on a loss.

[hweb2]

Wow PCMI over $10! Congrats guys. I didn't even know if the stock would be up or down today. Shows what I know ha. Imagine how much it would be up if Q4 had been good!

[SSKILLZ1]

PCMI

Well so far you and researcher, have been right and me and hweb have been wrong. It really is as simple as that. I will say this I thought a run from $7 to close to $9 was enough for a company that had a brutal quarter, and has shown great ability to miss guidance by a huge margin. The market is focused on guidance, now this is guidance I believe they will miss and by a decent margin (Until proven otherwise).

Also keep in mind q1, if they grow at 5% that will put revs at 550 million. The balance sheet keeps getting weaker, and their adjusted earnings, well it is not like they add back SBC and amortization like most companies they add everlasting restructuring cost, and startup expenses that keep coming in quarter after quarter. So I agree with littlefish on the quality of earnings, as some point startup expense have to come down and restructuring expenses have to go by by if they are one time in nature. Also there tax rate is 29% much higher than I thought it would be. Don't get me wrong the stock doesn't deserve to trade at $7, but it was up to almost $9 when I sold on a rotten quarter, and q1, will be lucky if it is .20-.25 (and that might be optimistic) or so, based on 5% growth revs are only 550 million versus the 563 million this quarter.

Now here are the pluses their UK unit is starting to do well, and almost broke even in january, although notice how they didn't mention february which means to me february wasn't as good as january. Their services unit is doing well, and that is higher margin business along with the uk business which is growing.

But I still don't get the response over $10, but then again I don't have too. I decided to get out in the upper 8's. It looks like a wrong call, and congrats on being more optimistic than me on this. I don't think q1 will be anything to look at, wouldn't surprise me if q1 earnings aren't much better than q4 and maybe even slightly worse. I don't think they come anywhere near $2.00, but apparently the stock doesn't need it to go up or the market believes the guidance for some unknown reason. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.