Replies to post #49225 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Oddlot]

Top on 3.3yr cycle is in...
Imho the best indicator for that is a channel using a centered MA equal to 1/4 of the wavelength to define the channel center. Trendlines parallel to that centerline will define the boundaries. My channel using 216day period had boundary of approx 2650 SPX, corresponding to the last low. Yesterday and today gives sustained weakness below that boundary and thus a sign of probable top, followed by downtrend into next 3.3yr low which is due in May 2019.

Copper is recognized as a superb prognosticator,and Dr Copper signaled a major decline when spot went below 3.00. Target becomes 1.90, implying a severe recession. Thi is contrary to the hype, but that makes it even more plausible.

Imho, the rational action is to seek a short entry on short term rally, and stay short until next May. Mkt will be erratic and confusing, so a longer term trendfollowing approach will be required in order to maintain the position.

Oddlot