Great question. Honestly no idea on the partner... they’ve talked about partnering a few times in the past. I don’t think they would have done the offering if they planned to immediately partner after 5211 data. I know ‘take money when u can get it’ is a tenant of the biotech world... but if they had a slam dunk offer they planned to take, the offering wouldnt be well timed (or necessary, most likely). Unless someone gives them an offer they can’t refuse, or already gave them one contingent on certain remaining phase 2 stuff, i think they will release the rest of their phase 2 stuff, and then start publishing the results in journals and conferences and shopping the data. Time is their friend. I think they will get a bigger premium on 5211 if they wait until after nash results, for a lot of reasons that are probably beyond what I can sum up at this very moment.
In the back of my mind, I am hoping that they announce lipid phase two topline results First, and then decide which drug gets them a better partner deal, and take it. They could then go one drug alone, with a ton of cash. If they didn’t immediately partner after 5211 and the nash data was good, it would make them much more likely to be a realistic buyout target, adding in a 5211 partner muddies a buyout situation, which I really think is the ultimate goal.
Nash drugs are dropping like flies. But The statin making companies would drop like flies if our nash drug is half as good as the phase 1 lipid lowering data looked like, barring unforeseen side effects of course. But hey, we are so close to data now. You always worry in early or mid trial that a drug trial will get halted if strange stuff happens medically. But we are like at the finish line. Odds of some awful side effect emerging become a little less imho, the longer the trial is allowed to continue. so I *expect (imho) to see nothing awful as we wait for these final patients to finish the primary endpoint stuff. They are constantly enrolling and so people finish the trial in piecemeal fashion. Kinda like various groups of runners starting a marathon at staggered times.
Statin making companies have a lot of cash after all these years of people being stuck on statins. Statins aren’t necessarily viewed as the fix-all that they once were thought to be, they are sometimes hard on the muscles and liver in certain cases and make some people feel like crap (imho). Used to be that anyone with any kind of cardiac anything going on, hand them a statin.
Easier to buy VKTX out than MDGL, especially if 5211 could be utilized in any fashion by the buyer.
It’s still just wishful thinking, but I have high hopes that our nash data will Continue to show the large magnitude of effect it showed in phase 1’s. If phase 2 nash is even close to phase 1, this thing might go to the moon. If our lipid lowering effects are better than MDGL, the value gap may finally close, once and for all.
I’m just hoping that they don’t make us wait on the lipid data. 1H18 better mean 1H18 :) I’m a patient man, but come on, throw us a bone here and hit a home run in a timely manner haha.
I’m just as excited as I was in the beginning, no matter how fast our price has moved in the direction of a fair valuation... hoping they give us a few breadcrumbs at the conference call coming up.
Take care brother, best wishes to the rest
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