We can't always look at the past for future guidance. Things change.
A while back I checked out a group of big and medium food stocks in the March 2000 - October 2002 bear market. In that market, the internet laden NASDAQ lost 66% of it's value, S & P half that. The food stocks I checked, such as GIS, ADM, CALM, MED, etc had a gain of 2 and 1/2 % in that time period plus dividends, less brokerage fees.
This time, no way does that happend if we are in a bear.. Expanded PE's in many of the foods are outrageous now. Kellogg PE 19, Bunge 86, Nestle 33, NTRI 23, COST 30, etc.
This time I am betting on food commodities through RJA. Gold has always scared me with all the manipulation, but yes, it could soar as well as sliver. RJA has a nice gradual chart going for it. Spikes in food commodities and not good buys,
What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk.
Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.
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