If trial had negative news leak sp would be down 25%, the reverse a positive leak would have moved it up 25%. We've seen these drops before for no rhyme or reason. My opinion for what it's worth is company is on the cusp of a deal.
Your theory of market knows something can be easily refuted with many examples. Here's a recent one.
Tetraphase closed at $5.43 on February 13. The next day they announced their antibiotic trial failed and the stock dropped 60% to $2.15. Did the market know something before the news broke? Apparently not.
IMO the major seller is Aspire as usual, but nice try.
Market has good intelligence - it smelled something rotten and it is dumping