Replies to post #218292 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[PlentyParanoid]

Thanks Daubers. I have a hunch that you are right. It so much depends on which part of the curve 200 mg lands, on accelerating or on decelerating (I assume saturation curve, may not be even that). But, as I said I made conservative assumptions in order not be tarred and feathered immediately. I prefer slow roasting.

In any case, over long run, I will take the 60/40 odds anytime. One ends up making money that way ;)

[PlentyParanoid]

Daubers, I did some additional harebrained analysis on apremilast trial data, which is the only data set one can even try any analysis without being totally anal (bad pun, if even that, sorry. It is this latent analcyst is me). Apremilast has whopping 4 trials with enough data.

Apremilast PASI 75 has weak positive correlations with the size of PGA/IGA > 3 proportion and mean BSA value. That makes intuitive sense because high values for both indicate wider spread of psoriasis. One can't really say that this means that prurisol scores in P2b will be better than those achieved in P2a, but one can say that there is no evidence of the opposite.

I made an another observation, which means I finally bothered to read UNVEIL trial report thru. Hello! Apremilast UNVEIL trial is a BSA outlier for a reason. That study went after low BSA, IGA = 3 subjects! And what that has to do with prurisol? In my predictions for prurisol 2b I used PASI 75 to IGA 0/1 ratio from UNVEIL. If I include tofacitinib and methotrexate trials we have 6 trials with the ratio over 0.9 (three over 1.1), 1 trial with the ratio at 0.7 and that trial is UNVEIL, a trial skewed on purpose. Looks like I was too cautious with my predictions.

That's all.