Replies to post #13651 on SiNtx Technologies Inc (SINT)

[MicTrade4490]

I dont see this as a killer move. And i dont see this offering taking place at a much higher price. For me it is more likely that the offering will be at a lower price...My investment is getting burned, not the money of management. Even if they terminate the offering when they raised enough cash to pay debt (what i dont think they will do) they dilute the shareprice by at least 30% or more...based on the MC right now which is around $8.5 million, what will the share price be after flushing the market with new shares nobody wants to buy at a high price?
Your provided information is really an interesting read, but so far i don't believe it will happe like u want it to happen.
If management knew that they are running out of cash end of 2017, why did they not register S-1 after RS and avoid this detour with Anson&Magna? The offering now has the purpose to get rid of the notes which were one months beore registered? Sorry, that is a bit to far-fetched for me. Maybe i am not one of your true bulls, and this story is not convincing me overall...

[dp60]

Hi CL101, Thanks as always for your analysis.

I'm reading this portion of the text you referenced differently:

"The Conversion Price for the Series B Preferred Stock is equal to, (i) for the first 40 trading days following the expiration of the Rights Offering, $ per share of Common Stock which price shall be determined by negotiations between the Company and the Dealer-Manager based upon the price of the Company’s Common Stock immediately preceding the offering, referred to as the Set Price,..."


Thus the set price appears to be based on common stock price preceding the offering not 40 days after the offer expires. ? Am i reading your interpretation correctly?


glta

[boston745]

Our numbers line up really well CL. Based on Inventory reserve avg of 8% (900k / 8%) puts Q4 estimated revenue at $11,250,000. That's ~$9mil in Si3N4 revenue and $2.25m metals.

That's 3300 Si3N4 units at an average cost of ~$461 per unit and average sales price of ~$2700.

[boston745]

CL, i've been looking at your numbers again, nicely presented btw. I think you are forgetting to factor in items that impact cash flow. For instance when you are determining actual cash burn you have to add depreciation expense, amortization, non-cash interest exp, etc.. back into your FS loss thus reducing level of actual cash burned (if at all). Also variances in AP & AR will impact the level of actual cash burned each quarter.
What i am seeing is you are only factoring in Income Statement items so you are dealing more with Amedica's accounting loss than its actual cash burn. In the 9m-12m range they should be cash flow positive but still operate with an accounting loss in the range you have. (variances depending).

Also from analyzing the way they do accounting and how consistent their numbers are i would say Sonny keeps things fairly conservative. Even though they raised 500k beginning of Feb, don't assume they were almost out of cash. I bet you Sonny has a set level that he wants to keep cash above.