Replies to post #69330 on Canopy Growth Corp (WEED)

[Tweedlede]

So The Black Market IS a concern ?....Oh my goodness.

That's the first time I've ever seen THAT fact acknowledged here !

Of course the blackmarket transition to legal regime is a short/medium term concern for market share. They are the main competition, and can undercut by avoiding regulation, quality control, and taxes.

But the reality is our supply will be bought up by provincial resellers, WAY before LP's can supply the entire market. Let the blackmarket fight for its ever shrinking marketshare. Their risks are going up (stronger laws). Their margins are shrinking (competition). Their product is being more scrutinized for its risks (mould, pesticides, fertilizers), while ours is getting better and better WITH regulative accountability. Their expertise in growing is being rapidly engulfed, and transitioned into industrial scale growing IP.

And finally, we have the biggest threat to them yet. The government's will to protect tax revenue. Eliminating the black market, is the MAIN objective by the government. Laws can adjust for marketing. Prices are not set in stone. Taxes are not set in stone. Its an evolving process, that will need to be revisited over and over. Refined, and optimized. If the current prices are too high, the legal market will adapt. This I am confident in.

[Scary Poppins]

I would venture to guess that the younger crowd will continue to go with the black market while it is still there. Eventually it will fade out... eventually.

I would also venture that the middle aged and baby boomers will stick to going to the store. The folks with money will be willing to pay to be on the up and up AND have more options.

We also forget about the occasional recreation user and the folks who previously smoked but stopped for whatever reason. They may dip back in the market given the availability.

My grandpa used to tell stories about running liquor and butter when those were illegal. Eventually he stopped and went back to cooking sausage and plowing snow. I think the dealers on the black market will do about the same. As they get older they will find new ways of creating more money and go that route. The trade of drug dealing will slowly fade.

[doubleeagle]

Just make sure you get your receipts from the Black market operators so that you can deduct your purchases on your tax filings.

[drivepact]

You realize there’s exports right?

[awesomesound]

Thanks for the shout out, and this is why the whole sector is overvalued, has anyone thought about how many entities now have to profit from Tweeds $10-$12 gram? Liquor boards, Pharmacies, Provencal Government stores, and now High Priced Distribution, Shopifiy is going to cost triple what Canada Post charges, Brings us to online shipping charge, now it brings that $7-$10 gram up to $9-$12 a gram, I can't see any LP selling bulk drop shipments to the CCBO for more then $4g. Has any CGC investor asked how much a gram their contracts(deals) with the Governments are for? Of Course Rec users will look for the best price, but also with cannabis if users already have a "Tried and True" source that is even the same price as Tweed, will not change their buying habits because the majority of recreational cannabis sales are between friends of friends and are usually on the spot or Convenience sales, opposite to medical.

Investors that believe the sector is undervalued is not seeing or understanding Cannabis in Canada, we have been Gorilla growing for 30 years that won't change.