whazoo- In my case it is based on 33 years in and around the market, and 10 years as a Market Maker. To try to explain all the little nuances that I see in the way it trades and the volume would take a book. (Though through all my posts here, particularly over the last month I do cover a lot of them)
But the most simple answer is that I know how many shares my friends have and I think I have a pretty good feel how many shares that the people on this board have and since I am confident that those two factors alone, neglecting the fact that I am sure that there are a lot of "friends of friends" both on and off this board along with Friends of Management, total more than the real float, it is pretty obvious that there must be a significant short.
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