Agreed. NKTR is in similar position INCY was a few years ago, small datasets of IDO showing promise and potential in combination with PD1/PD-L1 but with extremely high valuation. Even though INCY was listed by so many as one of top pick if not the top pick of acquisition target, I always thought it would be very unlikely unless there was more certainty of IDO potential because big biopharma wouldn’t necessarily mind paying more for success, but very unlikely to pay $20B or $30B or $40B with major future binary event blowing up in their face - $3B or $5B or even $10B would be different - unless they are extremely desperate and I don’t think any big biopharma is as desperate as many have been describing right now. Even GILD with sharp decline of revenue did only one major deal that wouldn’t make much if any dent to the decline revenue/earning in a few years.
Also look at recent acquisitions, with exception of CELG, IMO others are relatively conservative in picking M&A targets/assets and timing even though prices paid have been high. GILD waited until KITE full data and NVS CAR-T adcom for initial offer, SNY bought BIVV and ABLX few expected which I consider relatively conservative.
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