Last 4 Q thoughts and the coming Q's revenues:
18,310 ... 22,581 ... 20,852 ... 20,894
I have no idea if the brain trust decided to manipulate revenues to pack the 4th calendar Q / 3rd fiscal Q.
I hope so.
It's possible the Q to Q revenues would otherwise be flat as they were from the first fiscal Q to the second fiscal Q, without Presidential (released in November) and the Grand Selection Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes Cask Finish (released in October). Both have to contribute to a revenue increase. But both have to somewhat canabalize some of the other Jefferson's sales.
Therefore if the Q to Q revenues were otherwise going to be flat with no holiday bump, revenues should still be about $21,500,000.
If there is a sequential seasonal bump then we should top the $22.5 million Q when Walmart and ShopRite were initially stocked. That would set an all time high revenue record.
Here's my thought on topping $22.5 million.
If we don't, I will be really disappointed. There really won't be a seasonal bump. The Street will likily punish the PPS too.
Considering ROX should be booking $750,000 - $1,000,000 for Presidential, it will mean that the bourbon, whiskey and GGB revenues aren't doing enough to counter the case sales decline in the other categories.
In other words, without the November release of Jefferson's Presidential and Grand Selection Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes Cask Finish, ROX would barely report a sequential Q bump in the holiday Q.
That would mean if revenues are sequentially flat even with the GGB Walmart and ShopRite deals, the 10,000 bottle Presidential release, and the Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes Finish, the Y over Y bump would only be about 11% - 13%.
Normally, that wouldn't be bad, but I think it will be terrible considering everything else going for ROX.
There's simply too much good stuff happening to believe we won't top $22.5 million. I think the street needs more than that to get excited again. Me too.
At $22.5 million, I don't think we will be anything more than fractionally GAAP black.
Here's why I think ROX can top $24 million.
Mr. Lampen et.al. may have deliberately manipulated moving 2nd Q revenues into the 3rd fiscal Q (4th calendar Q). This may have happened for any number of reasons.
Obviously, companies manipulate finances when they report 10Q's and 10K's to make them look better.
Up until and including 2014, the 3rd fiscal (4th Holiday Q) was our top Q BY FAR for 5 years in a row.
Once ROX bought into KAD and Jefferson's started to buy more aged bourbon stock, and lay down it's own KAD distilled barrels, the 2nd fiscal Q became our biggest.
There had to be a reason for the change. It was extreme.
I've said before, I think ROX gave out incentives to distributors to stock up early, so ROX had more available cash to buy more aged bourbon during the 3rd fiscal Q, and to buy crops (raw materials) for distilling when crops matured and were ready for harvesting.
ROX has filled 2 warehouses with 8,000 barrels each in 2 years.
Because our 2nd 2018 Q wasn't a blockbuster by any means, especially if you back out the Walmart and ShopRite effect, I am very hopeful that ROX did not need to provide the distributor incentives this year. Hopeful they didn't front-load sales.
I am also very hopeful that the 3rd fiscal Q (4th holiday Q) reverts to being our annual blockbuster and sets a big record that moves the PPS needle, and generates the investor confidence we need.
I believe the $4.2 million bourbon acquisition on January 4th was timed to take advantage of the new tax break and to move the expense "OUT-OF" the 3rd fiscal Q.
That alone is $02.5 EPS.
That means if ROX was able to make the purchase out of cash flow, ROX may be manipulating WHOLE pennies to appear on the 3rd fiscal Q bottom line.
That goes in conjunction with the January 22nd news of Dr. Phillip Frost, Mark E. Andrews, III, Richard J. Lampen, converting loans to shares. It moved the dilutive share transaction into the 4th Q.
Topping $24 million would only seem to match the confidence the insiders have which is exhibited by the insiders never selling shares while increasing their percentage of the O/S, the increasing size of our inventory, the BBCo deal to produce more bourbon in 2018, the Goslings national TV campaign, allowing the S3 to expire without filing a new one to raise equity cash, and what we hope to learn about the KAD expansion deal regarding ROX's involvement if any.
It is also important that another analyst firm (ROTH) is covering ROX now. They have no skin in the game. Barrington who did cover ROX was also the company selling the S3 shares.
So who knows, maybe ROX will file another S3 and ROTH will be the seller of S3 shares.
I don't know, but if ROX is investing / participating in the $5.5 million KAD expansion, the money has to come from somewhere. I would think either insider loans as they have done in the past, or S3 money. We'll see.
Here's another great big tell we can look forward to if it ever happens ... it will be a huge milestone when ROX holds it's first analyst call. Therefore ROX needs a third company to cover them.
I continue to believe it's all going to happen when they can push revenues over $100 million and they'll be whole penny(s) GAAP black at the same time.
Concluding, I believe and hope the insiders are manipulating revenues and expenses. If so, revenues for the 3rd fiscal Q can top $24 million and ROX can be whole penny GAAP black.
If the revenues disappoint us, the PPS might be challenging sub-$1 on February 12th.
If revenues top $24 million, I believe the PPS will be challenging ROTH's $2.60 PT on February 12th.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
AI
