Well I handicap IPIX 's chances of insiders exchanging their millions of debt for the preferred shares and doing a 'death spiral' at 50%; an even chance.
On the other hand I would handicap 'pestilence, meteor strikes or invasion from aliens from another galaxy' of a 1/billionth of a per cent chance to hurt IPIX equity prices..
Quite a difference!!
Lots of things are risks one must handicap their chances of becoming manifest as I have done, above.
Hope that helps you out on how to handicap,manage risk.