Wonder how long it would take to get back to 2001 revenue levels with a consistent btob of say 1.1 or 1.2?
this is why i have real trouble understanding what's happening in the semi equip stocks. as i understand it, roughly, we need to see semi demand increase so that existing capacity is used up. or at least, until it becomes obsolete. but then, as semi companies upgrade facilities, they're also boosting capacity faster than in the past (because new processes mean bigger wafers, smaller die size, etc). demand would have to explode and grow fast. but it all seems like a losing game against moore's law ... or whatever the appropriate comparision is.
anyway, i suppose part of my problem here is that i just don't understand how folks "play" cyclical stocks. revenues in these companies don't stabilize, and the stock price doesn't seem to want to "average out" the longer-term performance of the company. instead its just 'anticipate the rise, jump in, anticipate the decline, jump out'. which makes it all seem more like they're just 'inherent trading vehicles' than investments anyway. though i suppose, over time, this all evens out. but in the semi equip companies, its hard for me to believe that anyone really wants to hold through the troughs.
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