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Replies to post #71301 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
01/31/18 9:20 AM
We have warned that the turning points were November, January, and March. If we exceeded the November high, then a run-up into January was likely. Now we have reached the period at where a turning point has arrived. The Weekly Bearish lies at 24696 and now that everyone is starting to get bullish, we reach the point where the market can toy with them or simply run away to the upside. Keep in mind that toying with everyone here in 2018 will be a sign of extending the duration of this bull market which is a reflection of what is unfolding on the Sovereign Debt Crisis in conjunction with the Monetary Crisis Cycle.
We wrote: "In the US Share Market, this is now a turning point we have reached. I have warned for months that exceeding the November high would lead to a January high. Now, the failure of February to make new highs warns of a March low. The support for a correction now lies at the 25637 level on a weekly closing basis (this is not a reversal). We will elaborate today on the Private Blog."
Indeed, this is the 3 week moving average of the lows which lies at 25637 and is above the Weekly Bearish Reversals. This means it can be easily faded. We still must look to the Reversals to guide us as to any correction on a sustainable basis.
We have elected one Daily Bearish Reversal so far and the next lies at 25941 followed by 25307. A serious correction would only be indicated by a closing for January below the December low of 23921.90. Nevertheless, a closing for January below 25678 will also signal a brief correction is possible.
We have turning points coming into play the weeks of 02/12 and 02/26.
A low this week can still be followed by a bounce into the week of 02/12 and then down again into 02/26.
The market will either scare everyone, or run away to the upside. The only fundamental that will matter is confidence and that will turn around the Impeachment issue. There are still Republicans hell bent on destroying the Trump Presidency and at the top of the list is Lindsey Graham. This is the guy with the rumors in Washington that he allegedly flies often to Paris where he has his homosexual lover stashed away and if that was ever proven to be True, South Carolina would send him packing his bags real fast. Barney Frank was gay, but representing Massachusetts was acceptable because the people knew it. South Carolina tends to be a strict religious state and that would not be acceptable.
Lindsey Graham is also against Trump on Global Warming and says he should join the Paris Accord. This has been a very dangerous guy and he is also the author of allowing citizens to be imprisoned without lawyers or trials if the government even accuses you of being associated with terrorists. Denied a lawyer or a trial means you cannot challenge what the government accuses you of doing in the first place. He is a very evil person who I rank as completely distrustful.
02/24/18 7:34 AM
WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Feb. 23, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 274730 and is trading up about 2.75% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Feb. 22, 2018, but the key low was made 10 days ago on Fri. Feb. 9, 2018 at 253269. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 278786 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 259886. This provides a 6.77% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. Last month produced a high at 287287 and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 268236 closing yesterday at 274730. We now need to close beneath 268236 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 47.7% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 4286.5% from the strategic low established during 1974, which has been a 43 year rally from that key event.
Our Daily level momentum is neutral while the trend indicator is bullish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 272511.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 22nd at 287287, which was up 64 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st of 2016. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of February 5th, which has been a move of.0778 percent.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 4 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 287287, which was created during the week of January 22nd. The last weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 262245 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 267361 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 23 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 260552 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.
