acrazjo, correct me if I am wrong, but I think it was you that I was talking to a while back before this big NG run, and we were watching NG break out above a trend line and you made the comment that something just didn't seem right about the break out.
This is the best video that I have seen so far that explains why we have those false breaks and how to trade them. I have posted my trading rules for how I like to trade a break out here before and one of my rules is to wait at least 3 candles later on a break out on the 60 minute chart for a buy trigger and this guy suggests why it is always best to be patient at the time of the break.
Another thing he mentions that I have heard many times is that traders are looking to get a 1/2 risk reward on their trades. That is why I try to use that formula on a trend line break.
I don't like to read too much into the end of the day chart especially on a Friday, but here it is anyhow. Just my thoughts. Best of luck everyone!!!!
I personally like to think of a break as a full candle above the trend line and then confirmation at least 3 candles later.
I know that this is all just back testing, but the market is closed and my wife and child are still sleeping. LOL Just thinking out loud. Hate to study the chart patterns and just hit the delete button. (And there is no football) LOL
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